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127 COMMENTS

  1. How would you best play the music nft future? I have small positions in Audius and Rocki currently.

    Thanks

    1. You should own the best of breed NFTs and then if you want you can look at the networks associated with it. Generally though its extremely new, many of this stuff is overvalued and many will be worthless. Only look at the top collectables and the top networks linked to it.

  3. I need to know a good trading platform for crypto and how can i get skill and knowledge on different cryptos

      1. Want to let me son “Play” to learn buying and selling.

        Robinhood or Crypto, and if Crypto any preferred apps/sites/

    2. I think $STX is a good play, and I have bought some. However, what risks do you see that could hamper it’s price appreciation?

      1. Regarding BTC; has the playbook changed at this price?

        Would you still DCA in to the coins listed in triangle investing or rather look for opportunities in smaller crypto projects with bigger potential upside?

  7. What types of NFTs are you looking at investing in, and what factors are important in evaluating them?

    1. Most we will say is we’re only involved in the highest end NFTs. Our framework is the same, value will accumulate only to the top of the top. Just like any art piece in history (works with sport cards as well).

  8. When looking at investing in NFTs, how do you decide which digital assets are actually worth buying? Any frameworks you use given 99% of NFTs will end up worthless in 10/20/50 years (i.e., given Sturgeon’s law)?

    1. Same framework for stocks applies to art, which is that you want to pay up and buy the best of the best. Vast majority of the stuff will be worthless and we mean a zero. The big winners end up collecting mass value, like a Van Gogh in the physical realm.

  9. In the past month I’ve shifted much of my analysis of investment opportunities to crypto (many thanks for the few hints).

    With the sea of shitcoins out there, what is the best way of determining the validity/potential of some of these DAOs/Coins?

    Seems like a lot of shilling on social media is being done to pump and dump some of these.

      1. How do you go out to meet the developers?

        I’m a Twitter crypto influencer.

        Do you DM them on Twitter/Telegram and arrange for a call? In your experience, is it worth the time investment?

  10. Long time reader, currently 22 and in SDR software sales role for a couple months. Big into crypto and NFT space, pretty good grasp of it and made good gains.

    Would you recommend young people switch from regular software sales to get into crypto companies doing sales roles?

    1. Probably not, software sales likely pays more near-term easier to start a second form of income that way.

      Funny in crypto upturns people forget the big message of this website, always start a second form of income.

    2. Hey Luke, in the exact same position as you (software sales and 22) and have been reading since around 16. Always love sharing thoughts with like-minded people so feel free to reach out to my email to connect! xythefuryyx(at)gmail

  11. For maximizing investment profit on NBA topshot is it worth buying only the top few players like lebron/luka? Or can profits also be made with mid-tier/bottom-tier players?

    1. If you believe in the future of top shots, you only buy the top players.

      Just like all other markets, eventually only the top few guys are worth anything. Look at a Jordan rookie versus a Patrick Ewing.

  12. Missed the boat on Crytokitties and cyberpunks. Are these still worth buying at FOMO level valuations?

  13. Hello,
    do you think we are in a “super-cycle”, meaning we dont have another 80% drop, so timing it is not worth it and the best play is to just stay fully allocated if you can handle the 40-50% drop. So will selling to early be the biggest mistake an investor can make, like seen previousle in e.g. prime real estate.
    Thanks,

  14. I’m not into collectibles but would like to own some NFTs for reselling/cash flow in the future. I know that a lot of NFTs will be rubbish. Do you have a framework for determining which NFT has the biggest probability of surviving?

    1. Yes it’s the same framework, find the top of the top and look at the history of Art and how those pieces became so valuable. If you’re looking for someone to just “tell you” you’re not gonna make it because you’ll sell on down days and will have weak hands

  15. I’ve recently got a remote job as a Junior Software Developer for a Belgian company. Currently living at my parents home, and due to everything being close, I am going to be saving until the last penny. I have been reading a ton about Crypto and now I am eager to pull the trigger.

    1. Would you consider “risky” to invest all of your income into buying and holding (not trading) Bitcoin and Stacks (STX)?

    2. If yes to the above question, which percentage of your savings would you invest given that I do not plan to create a side business at least till the next year & that I don’t mind losing it all & that I am a bit maniac about Crypto 🙂 ?

    Thank you very much!

    Alex

  16. 1. Who are your top 5 (non-obvious) follows in Crypto Twitter for DeFi/NFTs?
    2. Are you guys following the Cosmos network + if so what are your thoughts?

  17. Bought all 3 books..

    Long 40% BTC, 40% STX 10% MANA, 10% ETH.

    plugging away on side biz but putting lots of money into crypto.

    What’s the best way to get exposure to NFT’s? I want to shift some crypto allocation to NFT’s and have spent every second of free time researching NFT’s. I understand the value and how they work, but still find it difficult to predict which one’s will be successful. Cryptopunks have blown up and are way too expensive so would love to be early on the next similar wave. No doubt in my mind that NFT’s are the future, and believe that placing some significant well thought out bets now can help me become financially set for life.

    1. So then you’re looking for the next ultra high-end NFT space. That’s how this works. Buying shit coins at $1 NFT level is not going to work, those will likely go to zero.

      Think of NFTs like sports cards, accumulation to the winners.

  18. Do you think crypto would replace the normal currency in the near future? If so, how soon? Is the future gonna be as a digital world for all? If I start as a beginner for trade Bitcoin/Crypto with only 10K savings aside, how much shall I start with and what is the quickest and easiest way to start with?

    1. 1) near-term no, long-term its a real possibility
      2) we’re positive on the 5-year outlook of crypto, likely up in 2021 and a downturn between now and 2025
      3) That is the craziest thing we’ve ever heard, if you can’t save money you need two forms of income first before you even bother. You can just dollar cost average into safer coins like BTC for now

  19. In a space filled with so many bullshit artists, how do you actively find quality information and good follows related to crypto? I’ve got you and Gmoney so far.

  20. What are your views on the risk/return profile of yield farming through staking and liquidity pools?

    1. We’ve dabbled in it but our general view has been extremely high risk at these levels. The bigger picture is where does the additional liquidity from leverage go, so you don’t have to deal with it

      If you’re just staking ETH long-term that’s fine though. You can read between the lines for the rest

  21. Question 1 – Been following NFT space for 2ish months and ready to dive in. I am considering art and experience-based tokens for now (i.e. concert tickets, music, videos, VIP privileges). What are the main positive factors you look for when analyzing an NFT for legitimacy and future growth potential, as well as red flags?

    Question 2 – Crypto is clearly here to stay, but naturally subject to market cycles as that comes with the territory of any financial asset. Thankfully, crypto cycles seem more predictable given the correlation with BTC halvening. However, past experience does not always equate to future action, especially with a disruptive tech like crypto. Public retail hype hasn’t even started yet….institutions are quietly (and some loudly) accumulating. Seems like the severe drops of 2013 and 2017 are less likely from a % delta perspective.

    So, what are your predictions for this market cycle from a *timing* perspective for BTC top, ALT Top, DeFi Top and the depth of pullbacks?

    Question 3 – Crypto / blockchain is ultimately going to disrupt every industry. Some will take longer… but the writing is on the wall and has been for years now. Which industries have you the most excited about blockchain tech?

    I personally think supply chain traceability and financial services (borrowing & lending, exchanges, insurance) have HUGE implications which naturally are driving my speculative bets on the future.

    1. 1) already covered? Just look at the Q&A section
      2) Same old, we just said we expect this year to be up and a downturn by 2025 (so somewhere between 2022-2025 we expect it to go down). We’ll disclose if we see what we think is a top. We’re not fortune tellers who can give you the day and time right now that’s just not reasonable at all
      3) Financial services will be destroyed first

      1. Understood, much appreciated guys. Noticed right after I posted that everyone asked same question about NFT’s.

        Good to go.

        Thanks as always!

  22. You guys seem to put more emphasis on buying underlying NFTs versus buying top smart-contract networks linked to them (but maybe I’m misinterpreting your strategy). Wouldn’t the better play be the networks themselves that they are being used on (ETH, XTZ, ADA, STX)? Given that not only will NFTs be built on them but also every form of smart contracts (DeFi, DEX, internet 3.0 etc.)? Seems less risky with still the same amount of upside.

    1. Yes we do own the networks themselves as well. We assumed the questions were related to the collectables as we’ve already talked about some of the networks in our book and on twitter.

  23. I’m trying to assess my sell strategy, if there should be one. Are you on team “super cycle” aka there won’t be any 80% prolonged bear markets, only shorter time frame ~40-50% max drawdowns?

    If so, doesn’t this imply never selling and instead, earning yield from Blockfi, defi, etc? If not, what targets for BTC/ETH this cycle?

    This question is a battle of the “this time it is different” vs “past performance doesn’t dictate the future” memes

    Any crypto-type business ideas to add to Efficiency?

  24. I know this is crypto QA so completely understand if you delete.

    I have a relatively successful ecom brand (profits ~$5k/month). I want to diversify my online business portfolio (currently just ecom brand). Thinking of starting a content site in the same niche.

    Is it better to:
    1) double down on ecom brand
    2) explore creating content site while running ecom brand

    Ultimately I’d like to build a portfolio of digital assets, but I’m stuck in the “focus on one and grow vs. add additional income stream”

    1. Depends on the growth rate of the brand, if it’s still growing 20% a year or more, no reason to do the content site yet.

      If growth has slowed, then make the content.

      Ideal situation is you buckle up and do both. Hopefully you’re young

      1. 26 so young enough to buckle down.

        Follow-up (if allowed): Better to buy a site (can afford up to $15k) or build from scratch?

    2. I’m roughly in the same boat as you I’ve actually had this question addressed by a successful 10mm+ revenue ecomm owner (unrelated to WSP)

      His advice is definitely push the brand/new products first but once you’re at a high enough revenue level, and assuming you think the niche has great potential/you have interest in it, then yes you can hire (competent) offshore workers who can actually write / design good content, infographics on a regular basis and push out a separate content site in the same niche.

      The benefit of the content site is you can collect affiliate income from recommending competitor’s products (and once you identify high demand ones can develop/whitelabel your own version and unlink the competitor’s product).

      Also, apparently WordPress works better for SEO rankings for a content site than something more sales focus such as Shopify (which is fine for your ecomm brand).

      If you’re interested in connecting and sharing know-how ideas perhaps drop a burner email here and I’ll reach out?

    3. Hey J, if you’re not taking advantage of your email list already (if it’s giving <20% revenue p/m) I'd highly recommend putting together an email strategy in place.
      I could help you out at no upfront cost on a commission-only basis if it's a good fit.

      Let me know if you want more info or have any q's – klaviyoburner@protonmail.com

  25. 1) Early twenties, got one bitcoin (bought at $10k) and five ethereum. Did what you suggested and played it safe with just the top two for now. Also have a bunch of cash to deploy into a second income stream, I just need to figure out what. At this point in the game, are there any other cryptos you’d look at or just chill for now and focus solely on the second income stream?

    2) What’s your prediction for bitcoin’s value 5 years and 10 years from now?

      1. In the long term. would Wall Street end up becoming DeFi based? How would you jump into defi and work almost like a hedge fund/broker in the future?

  26. NFT’s are the future. I’m an investor and buy and flip land. Digital land on decentraland I have an issue purchasing.
    Will another platform come and trump decentraland? Would you invest capital into land and assets on Decentraland?

    1. We do think there will be value in buying something like decentraland (although it’s unclear if that’s the “winner”)

      So if you’re risk on you can look at it but hopefully the message is clear, we do think something like that will go vertical we’re just not sure if its that specific asset at this time. If we conclude it is, we’ll announce

      1. Can you direct me to material on how an artist can jump into the NFT space? Clubhouse maybe? Further, would you say it is something that should only be pursued by people at the top?

        I am a skilled music producer & knowledgeable about blockchain (can program blockchain products using javascript MERN) looking to release music as NFTs. Example– 3lau (DJ) just did this with a bunch of rare music, made a killing.

        Thank you.

  27. Pulled out profits from crypto in Feb. (>$60k since a September investment….thanks GRT!) due to the frothy/manic sentiment once BTC was above $50k.

    I want to re-enter the market, but DCA into some stronger projects and effectively build a crypto portfolio instead of just ‘YOLOing’ into alts, looking for the 20x-50x return.

    Any thoughts?

  28. In addition to investing,would you say it’s worth it to get involved with NFTs from an artistic and creation aspect?

    I’m not a painter or drawer but do have decent writing skills.

    Or is this akin to all art in the real world and in which case, I’d effectively be asking a ridiculous question like I should go into artistry lol

  30. – How do we prepare ourselves for the impending fragmented violence resulting from Sovereign Individual?
    – What’s the best way to spot lies/liars? I know that you have a post but it’s very old (2013) and your writing only solidified in 2015. It would be great to have an updated post.

      1. 1) Interesting as that is one of the main premise of the book. As centralized government fail local mafias and paramilitary group rise to power.

        As the second question is not answered can I ask another one
        How do you see advertising and targeting will change with the rise of centralization?

      2. 1) sure we don’t have that negative of a view, we view it as more of “local groups” not really gangs. Extreme violence is less likely because people are not as dreaded as you may believe. So we don’t agree with that part

        2) will change a ton, look at brave browser

  31. Long time reader, first time caller. Been following you guys since 2013, so thanks for everything.

    I’ve built an automated trading system on top of Binance’s API, and am starting to experiment with different algorithms.

    Which Technical Analysis indicators work best for crypto? My preference is to trade little and often, so momentum indicators are looking best so far. Any specifics you could suggest would be great.

  32. I recently attended a forum for fund managers to discuss crypto and Blockfi’s head of security presented. I was always a “not your keys not your coins” adherent but am reconsidering in light of their (and other’s) best in class custody services plus decent interest rate. Appreciate the rate becomes a lot less attractive after 2.5 BTC / tax etc but was wondering if your views have changed on self custody versus lending?

  33. I have double culture background from east and west. After nearly 10 years, I feel the needs to go back to the roots because I do miss the home. But I am not really sure whether it is a good idea to go back to the east side ? Or does it even matter where I live? Between a lot of things, I feel it is hard to make a decision with it. Besides of studying and working, I have started to learn investment and I am reading books (include yours), I wanna know up until which step shall I start to make a try and how much shall I try? Is there a rule for it ? (Learning , practicing and actually doing it)

  34. Financially independent. Full time investor in VC with a fund. Small management fee, hope to grow to the point where it pays the bills. Until then balancing it out with cash withdrawals.

    Married, 2 kids, house in the burbs, etc.

    Crypto now 10% of NW. Another 10% in VC/angel. ~20% cash. The rest in stocks.

    What adjustments would you make to this allocation if any, specific to crypto?

  35. 1: I understand building a second revenue stream is the goal. While still ramping up, do you have advice on careers in the crypto space, like what kinds of positions or what kind of firms to target? Fully understand time for money is not optimal; this is for the early ramp-up phase where a job is still needed. Intent is that I’ve seen totally braindead people who happened to be in the right sector at the right time still make a lot of money, and I just see the writing on the wall with traditional financial firms/careers and how DeFi could negatively impact them.

    2. Semi-related question, but this one can include setting up an independent side business of my own: ideas on how to benefit from DeFi aside from merely buying the tokens? I realize that could be a longer answer so perhaps something in the decentralization book that you guys are working on?

    1. 1) not really same advice as always unless coder, then you can be in software at a crypto firm. Otherwise same old answers as has been stated on here for 9 years now. If you do banking just go to M&A
      2) you can use defi to get leverage

    1. Not sure if related, the only way it would be is if the crypto asset declined. If you’re saying tradFi collapses as peopel move to crypto, then all those tokens would balloon due to leverage.

      If there is a crypto correction everything blows up terribly.

  37. 1) If you are long Decentraland and VR industry, have you looked into Sensorium Galaxy? Interesting strategic partnerships (Russian billionaire founder, Epic Games, Tidal, Owner of Ushuaia Ibiza etc). Looks like end-game vision he is trying to make a VR Westworld-type company. Market cap is high but since you guys have a crystal ball wanted to see if you think this product type will be massive down the road.

    2) Also curious your thoughts on decentralized cloud computing and if you think that can capture any significant market share from Amazon, Google, Microsoft etc. Akash Network is an example, market cap seems very low compared to industry but it seems lately big tech keeps putting out these fires before they run wild.

  38. First time commenter here. Love following your work/commentary.

    Is your expectation for BTC to clear $100k this year based on the S2F model? If so, what are your thoughts on S2Fv2?

  39. Is there a crypto/defi/nft equivalent of buying rental/income real estate for passive income?

    Having some health problems and thinking about purchasing real estate rentals to replace day job income but that seems too 1994 boomerish.

    Trying to be more future oriented.

  41. Threw 10% of my net worth into BTC back when you called the bottom a year ago (thanks buddy, bottle service on me!). Have since diversified into other tokens but total crypto holdings have ballooned to become ~50% of my liquid net worth. Should I sell some for risk management purposes? I don’t think we’re anywhere near the top. Remainder of liquid net worth is in equities. Only recently became financial “set” and am not great at picking equities myself (I put 15% of liquid net worth into a “Risk On” portfolio of Chamath SPACs in January that is getting killed right now lmao).

    Anyways, thanks for making me rich!

    1. If you don’t have a second form of income you could sell a little to start one. Hard to tell based on this comment.

      Thats a general view though 50% is probably extended if you bought the bottom, so you want to create a business from part of that capital.

  42. Without naming any artists. What would you consider the starting pricepoint to be for new nft drops that you would consider as top of the top and worth investing in?

    Currently 30k limited drops are a bit out of my comfort zone to start.

      1. Thanks! Buying my first NFTs this week. Have done research on artists that have been sought after before.

        To get my feet wet will target open and slightly less limited editions in the 1-3k range as hype is growing I expect to flip them within 2 months and use the proceeds to move up and aquire more rare items from hot creators as per your suggestion.

        Anyways I appreciate your content and advice over the years. As per your outline I quit my job back in 2019 after 2nd income stream hit stable 2x net profit of my then salary. Have since mostly reinvested back into business and set up another cashflow stream so am just now starting to invest in crypto. Mainly btc/eth and now thanks to you into NFT. No followup question here just a thanks after years lurking 😀

  43. NFT’s are the future. I’m an investor and buy and flip land. But digital land on decentraland I have an issue with purchasing.

    Would another platform come out that would trump decentraland? Hint: an OA***S

    Would you invest capital into land and assets on Decentraland?

    Thanks

  44. Not crypto-related, but hoping you’ll answer as it’s not a crypto question that you’ve already addressed in the book or on Twitter. Given what’s gone on with yields in recent days, any change in your thinking that cash is relatively worthless until 2023 and the right equities play is high-tech/innovative growth stocks who will still be around then? Put differently, even if the Fed continues the rate policy until 2023, have facts on the ground over the last couple of weeks changed your take on the implications of that policy?

      1. Original Author – not advocating a shift into 10 year treasuries, personally. But if treasury yields continue to rise and there’s constant market anxiety about rate hikes, don’t we run the risk of self-fulfilling (negative) pricing action on growth stocks?

  45. Fair to say you guys are generally skeptical of ERC tokens that fulfill niche use cases / govern platforms?

    If I’m right, is it because it’s still too early to bet on these with any legitimate expectations? Or just too much technical work to understand most of them that rewards don’t justify it?

  46. Thanks for the Stacks tip, got me involved in the NFT space. I’m a developer currently in school, doing an internship while finishing up last sem (read: I’m very busy). I have a huge idea involving NFTs/DeFi that could truly revolutionize the space, but don’t have time to work on it rn.

    How do I pursue this idea when I’m already working crazy hours? How do I find mentorship and support for the idea?

  47. What’s your opinion about
    1) Technical Analysis in crypto?
    2) the Stack to Flow (S2F) model?
    3) the Pi Cycle Top indicator?

  48. DeFi, then NFTs, then ???

    What do you think the focus of the 2025 bullrun will be? My vote is on smart contracts penetrating into meatspace. Smart contracts for houses, smart contracts for cars, etc.

  49. Have y’all started exploring any Web3.0 based projects yet?

    Beyond just basic DeFi/NFTs/Crypto it seems like there is a huge upside in a few of these, especially from a “mining” perspective.

  50. You mentioned 10-50% net worth allocation to crypto in the books. Now that prices have 5x’d, would you still stay in those bounds so sell as the % net worth increases or let it ride?

    Overall net worth 66% Equities, 33% Real Estate, 33% Crypto (poster child for triangle investing!), where should the incremental dollar get invested given high valuations everywhere?

    What do you think about this crypto allocation? 84% BTC/12% ETH/3% LINK/1% STX

    Thanks as always!

    1. 1) impossible to answer depends on your net worth
      2) again impossible to answer
      3) Again impossible.

      Sorry but this wasn’t a good set of questions, if you’re already set for life your answers were fine, if you’re broke and have no secondary income we think you’re taking on too much risk.